CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. (AP) –
Soviet-era
spacecraft meant to land
on Venus
In the 1970s, it is anticipated to quickly fall uncontrollably back to Earth.
It’s too soon to determine where the half-ton chunk of metal might land during re-entry or how much of it will withstand the journey back to Earth, as stated by officials.
space debris-tracking
experts.
A Dutch researcher named Marco Langbroek forecasts that the malfunctioning space vehicle will likely re-enter Earth’s atmosphere around May 10. According to his calculations, it could hit the ground traveling at approximately 150 mph (242 kph) should it stay whole until then.
“While not without risk, we should not be too worried,” Langbroek said in an email.
The object is relatively small and, even if it doesn’t break apart, “the risk is similar to that of a
random meteorite fall
, several of which happen each year. You run a bigger risk of getting hit by lightning in your lifetime,” he said.
He mentioned that the likelihood of the spacecraft actually colliding with anyone or anything is minimal. “However, one can’t entirely rule out that possibility,” he said.
In 1972, the Soviet Union dispatched a probe called Kosmos 482 as part of their series of Venus exploration missions. However, due to a rocket failure, it remained trapped within Earth’s orbit.
Much of it collapsed within ten years. However, Langbroek and others think that the landing capsule — a sphere roughly 3 feet (1 meter) across — has been circulating around Earth in an extremely elongated orbit for the last 53 years, slowly losing height over time.
There is a good chance that the spacecraft, weighing over 1,000 pounds (almost 500 kilograms), could endure re-entry. The craft was designed to handle descending through Venus’ thick carbon dioxide atmosphere, as noted by Langbroek from Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands.
Specialists question whether the parachute system remains functional after such an extended period. Additionally, the heat shield might have deteriorated from its prolonged time in space.
According to an email from Jonathan McDowell of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, it would be preferable if the heat shield malfunctions, leading the spacecraft to disintegrate as it plunges through the atmosphere. However, should the heat shield remain functional, “it will survive reentry largely undamaged, resulting in a 500-kilogram metallic projectile descending from above.”
The spacecraft has the potential to re-enter at latitudes ranging from 51.7 degrees north to south, which encompasses locations as far north as London and Edmonton in Alberta, Canada, extending nearly to Cape Horn at the southern tip of South America. However, considering that much of Earth is covered by oceans, “the likelihood is high that it will ultimately splash down into one of them,” according to Langbroek.