Google’s Earthquake Early Warning System Fails to Alert During Turkey’s 2023 Disaster
Google has acknowledged that its earthquake early warning system did not provide accurate alerts during the devastating earthquakes in Turkey in 2023. The system, which is designed to send warnings to Android users, was expected to reach millions of people within 98 miles of the epicenter. However, only a small number of users received the most critical “Take Action” alerts.
During the first 7.8 magnitude earthquake, which struck on February 6, 2023, ten million people could have been sent the highest level alert, potentially giving them up to 35 seconds to seek safety. Instead, only 469 “Take Action” warnings were issued. Additionally, half a million users received a lower-level “Be Aware” alert, which is intended for lighter shaking and does not override the device’s Do Not Disturb settings.
The system, known as Android Earthquake Alerts (AEA), is designed to detect shaking from a large number of Android devices. Because earthquakes move relatively slowly through the earth, the system can send out warnings before the strongest shaking reaches an area. The “Take Action” alert is the most severe, triggering a loud alarm that overrides Do Not Disturb settings and covers the user’s screen. This type of alert is crucial for waking people up, especially during nighttime when many are asleep.
Despite the system being active on the day of the quakes, it underestimated the strength of the earthquakes. The first quake was initially estimated at between 4.5 and 4.9 on the moment magnitude scale, while it was actually a 7.8. A second earthquake later that day was also underestimated, with the system sending Take Action alerts to 8,158 phones and Be Aware alerts to nearly 4 million users.
In the months following the disaster, efforts were made to find users who had received the more serious “Take Action” notification. However, no one was found who had received this alert before the quake hit. This led to the publication of findings highlighting the system’s shortcomings.
Google researchers have detailed the limitations of the detection algorithms in the Science journal. They noted that the system failed to accurately assess the magnitude of the earthquakes. After the event, the algorithm was updated, and simulations showed that the system would have generated 10 million Take Action alerts and 67 million Be Aware alerts for the first earthquake.
While Google emphasizes that the system is meant to be supplementary and not a replacement for national warning systems, some scientists express concerns about countries relying too heavily on untested technology. Elizabeth Reddy, an assistant professor at the Colorado School of Mines, criticized the delay in addressing the system’s issues, noting that it took over two years to release the information.
Harold Tobin, director of the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network, stressed the importance of transparency regarding the system’s performance. He warned that some regions might assume Google’s system is sufficient and neglect their own warning infrastructure.
Google claims that post-event analysis has improved the system, and AEA has since sent alerts in 98 countries. However, the company has yet to respond to inquiries about the system’s performance during the 2025 earthquake in Myanmar.
As the technology continues to evolve, the need for reliable and timely earthquake warnings remains critical. The lessons learned from the 2023 disaster highlight the importance of ongoing improvements and transparent communication about the capabilities and limitations of such systems.